Will The Following be cancelled?

My prediction is that it's likely to be renewed as long as it does not tank in viewership in the next episode and that there's an upward trend for the episodes leading up to the finale.

If you want to understand how I came to this conclusion, I turn full on nerd below with analysis of some numbers.

Plot Speculations:

Come to the Dark Side...

Based on the need to boost ratings, I predict a major character death next episode.  I believe Gwen or Max will be killed.  If Max is killed then not only will Ryan become Joe's follower but Mike will become Ryan's and then it will continue the original "following" and killer conversion concept so there's a good chance of that happening.  However since there's been only minimal character development on Gwen, it will be much easier to give her the ax and further cement Ryan flying over the edge.

Exhibit A

Historical Viewership

March 31, 2014

9:00	CBS	Friends With Better Lives - Series Premiere	2.7/7	7.99
	FOX	The Following	1.4/4	4.23
	CW	The Tomorrow People	0.5/1	1.114

May 6, 2014

9:00PM	CBS	The Big Bang Theory -R	1.5	5	7.15
	FOX	The Following	1.1	3	3.25
	CW	Jane the Virgin	0.5	1	1.03

Based on Exhibit A, the ratios for March in 2014, which is 4 episodes left to lead up to the season finale 1.89:1:.26.  Now the same 4 episodes away this past Monday had a ratio of 2.2:1:.32.  I am not an expert on the TV industry by any means but I do plenty of analysis for C-level execs who make these kinds of decisions of what products and services get the ax.  Performance against direct competitors and historic performance are all factors into major consideration.

Exhibit B

Season 1

No. in season	U.S. viewers (million)
1	10.42[6]
2	10.10[7]
3	9.01[8]
4	8.79[9]
5	8.39[10]
6	8.58[11]
7	8.81[12]
8	8.15[13]
9	8.34[14]
10	6.66[15]
11	6.57[16]
12	6.30[17]
13	6.36[18]
14	7.04[19]
15	7.82[20]

Season 2

No. in season	U.S. viewers (million)
1	11.18[21]
2	6.02[22]
3	5.84[23]
4	4.76[24]
5	5.19[25]
6	4.61[26]
7	5.16[27]
8	4.86[28]
9	3.95[29]
10	4.07[30]
11	4.17[31]
12	4.41[32]
13	4.36[33]
14	4.42[34]
15	4.81[35]

Based on Exhibit B, part way through both seasons you see a sudden increasing viewership trend so there is an expectation that there will be improvement towards the end of the season.

Exhibit C
Kevin Bacon, Shawn Ashmore and Jessica Stroup have not signed up for anything else to star in for the near future so they're not likely to quit this job.